Jon HoeflingUSA TODAY
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Fantasy football is one of the most unforgiving games in existence. You can spend months preparing for your ultimate draft just to get hit with three injuries, an early retirement, and a head coach who refuses to use his best players (who happen to be on your team). However, even worse than each of those fates listed above is drafting a bust.
While you know not to start players who are injured, drafting someone who underperforms leaves you in an uncomfortable circ*mstance. Do you bench the player? What if they start performing at the level you expected? Do you leave them in the starting lineup despite their lackluster performances? It's a conundrum that even the world's smartest scientists can't figure out an answer to.
Of course, there is a simple method to avoid all that. Just don't draft any busts. Simple as that. Don't draft anyone who is going to underperform. Now, the less-talented fantasy football players among you may say that is an impossible task. You can't possibly predict which players will and won't underperform. To that I say, watch this. Here are five players to avoid at all costs in your fantasy drafts this year.
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Five players to avoid in 2024 fantasy football:
- WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
With Jahan Dotson heading to Philly, it'd be easy to assume that Scary Terry is in for a massive season with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. That won't be the case though.
Last season, the Commanders were tied with the Cowboys for the most pass attempts in the NFL per game. Jayden Daniels is a mobile quarterback who will likely get a lot of rushing work. Even if the Commanders keep up their insane passing volume from a season ago, the team has brought in some short-to-intermediate targets that will take some of McLaurin's volume away.
Most notably, these targets include Austin Ekeler, who has been a reception machine out of the backfield in recent years, as well as Ben Sinnott, who has not only dominated training camp and the preseason, but has reportedly developed a strong connection with Daniels already.
Essentially, the Commanders look like they are going to be a run-first offense and could rely heavily on short passes to get them downfield. If there is one positive, it's that Jayden Daniels is known for his incredible deep ball, and McLaurin is pretty good at catching deep passes. However, the volume likely won't be there to support McLaurin at his current ADP.
- RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers
If you were to look at the Chargers' depth chart right now, you'd see that Gus Edwards is listed as the co-RB1 alongside his former Baltimore teammate J.K. Dobbins. That won't be the case for long. Despite being part of a run-heavy Baltimore offense a year ago, Edwards wasn't very effective, mustering just 4.1 yards per carry. Most of his fantasy relevance came from his goal-line work, and let's be honest, the Chargers aren't going to be near the goal line as much as Baltimore was a season ago.
Even if Edwards is lucky enough to secure the goal line job in the Chargers' backfield, he'll likely lose early-drive work to Dobbins, meaning Edwards would be an insanely TD-dependent option to go with later in drafts. Dobbins (and arguably third-stringer Kimani Vidal) has a better upside to go for late in drafts.
- RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Mixon has had four 1,000-yard seasons with the Bengals in his last six years. Great, right? But then why did the Bengals dump him immediately after the 2023-24 season finished?
The fact of the matter is that Mixon is one of the league's least-efficient running backs and this will be the year that his whole world comes crashing down. We've seen this happen before. In fact, it happened just last year when the Minnesota Vikings released Dalvin Cook. Everyone thought the Vikings were idiots for making such a move, but they knew what the public didn't, and Cook didn't have any gas left in the tank.
Mixon appears to be in a similar situation, and while he should get some good looks at the goal line early in the season as the lead back in a dangerous Texans offense, he could very well lose his starting job by midseason and his yardage totals likely won't be great.
- WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Will Puka Nacua be a tremendous fantasy receiver? Yes. Is he worth a first-round pick? No.
Nacua is not only entering the 2024 season having nursed a knee injury for the past several weeks, but reports from the Rams indicate that Cooper Kupp is fully healthy and that the offense should flow through him once again. This isn't to say that Nacua isn't a great fantasy receiver, but using a first-round pick on him when you could use an early fourth on Kupp isn't a winning strategy.
- RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
While Javonte Williams just had a fully healthy offseason after nursing an ACL tear a year ago, he faces some serious competition in Sean Payton's backfield. Reports from camp indicate that Jaleel McLaughlin has looked like Denver's best halfback and the numbers back it up.
McLaughlin averaged 5.4 yards per carry during 2023, over a yard-and-a-half more than Williams' 3.6. Williams should improve on that mark this year, but it's hard to argue against McLaughlin's efficiency. At the very least, McLaughlin will take a noticeable chunk of work away from Williams, who will likely be a volume-dependent fantasy asset.
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